When in Doubt Zoom Out
Raoul at Global Macro Investor recently dropped a detailed thread on various parts of the macro crypto ecosystem and looking at network affect.
The quick take away that we want to pass to our readers is that over the long term the pathway to “wealth” creation is quite clear even with the speculation. If things continue at roughly the same trajectory then the below charts will hold.
As Raoul points out, if a network continues to create network effects then the log regression channel is still an excellent way of forecasting the future.
Assuming BTC remains 1 standard deviation below trend it gives a price “target” of around $600,000 by end of 2024. 😮
Now that maybe on the top side and does not account for some slow down “S” curve like growth but even at 2 standard deviation below trend you still get a number around $300,000 for end of 2024.
HODL - means Hold on for Dear Life : You should be starting to see why the community screams it all over social media. The long term network value and subsequent price appreciation in this asset class is phenomenal.
How is this possible, well we know how the internet spread and we can track that growth rate against crypto users today. See below
As of today the Crypto network is growing at 137% a year. In comparison the internet grew at 76% on a like for like time period.
Now we all know where the internet ended up and how it become intertwined with daily life… so extrapolate this out and just imagine where the next 10-15 years will be regarding Bitcoin and the wider ecosystem.
HODL
The Wealth Gap Team
(Still not financial advice)