Few outside of the geopolitic and global supply chain arena will be aware of the current horrific potential knock-on effects of some really bad Zero Covid actions in China.
The “crazy” restrictions (in our opinion) which leak from political and power game action at the top within the Xi universe and the Politburo are going to cause some monumental problems for not just China but the rest of the world.
Some rough figures estimate Trucking volumes are down 85% in the Chinese Heartlands and a third of farmers in Jilin, Liaoning and Heilongjiang can’t get fertiliser seed or seeds for Spring crops. Why? Because it is stuck in cargo holds in Lockdown Shanghai.
Wide spread talk of authorities sealing off access to rural villages also means that it is highly unlikely they will plant anything near the volumes one is accustomed to for this coming year. Not that it would matter anyways because apparently there are reports of authorities arresting farmers for being on their tractors… in a field… by themselves… due to Zero Covid idiotic policies.
The above is just the tip of the potential Food Crisis that is likely to unfold, it gets worse…much worse!
Now lets look at the real crazy shit no one is focusing on as pointed out by many concerned geo watching twitter citizens with an eye for all of this. The below is summarised from EricMertz
As of writing and as far as one can gather (china aren’t great at telling the reality) these major regions or cities below are locked down or access has been “partially or totally” restricted for business or logistics.
Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shandong, Shanghai, Anhui, Hebei, Liaoning, Shaanxi, Jilin, Guangdong, and Fujian have all gone a step further and shut down access to highways entirely.
Jiangsu
-84 Million people
-Central coal import hub
-Central silk production hub
-Important source of fish
-Important pharmaceuticals manufacturing hub
Zhejiang
-64 Million people
-Important source of automotive parts
-Central export manufacturing hub
-Central textiles and clothing hub
Shandong
-101 Million people
-Important source of fruits and vegetables
-One of the few major sources of domestic oil and natural gas
-Single largest agricultural export region in China
-Heavily dependent on Korean and Japanese tourism
Shanghai
-25 Million people
-Financial hub for China, vital source of hard currency to secure importation of coal and food
-Primary gateway for imports into China
-Central ship building node
-Central node for the Real Estate sector which local governments have relied on for revenue
Anhui
-64 Million people
-Vital source of grain and coal
-Central steel hub
Hebei
-74 Million people
-Surrounds Beijing
-Primary industry is feeding Beijing with wheat and maize and millet
-Central node in petroleum and coal industry
-Central node for iron processing and steel production
Liaoning
-145 Million people
-Central node for iron, steel, and tool and dye work
-Primary node for mineral extraction across Northeast China
-Central node for machine parts for light industry such as textile manufacturing and food processing
-Core node for agriculture
Shaanxi
-39 Million people
-3rd Largest producer of coal, oil, and natural gas in China
-Key livestock and ranching node
Jilin
-24 Million people
-Key source of rice and lamb
-Key source of lumber
-Primary source of traditional medicines
-Central node for shale oil extraction
-Large molybdenum deposits
Guangdong
-126 Million people
-Second largest subdivision economy on the planet by PPP
-Second most important cargo hub in China
-Central node in food processing
Fujian
-41 Million people
-Key source of seafood
-Will be staging ground for China's “invasion” of Taiwan
-Military logistics a major industry
-Heavily dependent on imports from other provinces due to deliberate lack of investment ahead of future war with Taiwan
So what?
So the above should give some indication of the scale of potential disruption in what is now more than ever a globally connected world of interdependance, with materials moving through supply chains and keeping the world stable and functional. The restricted areas above encompass some 700,000,000 people and their appropriated outputs are being thwarted and throttled if not totally diminished in some cases.
Get ready for a knock on shit storm. Many seem to think that China is a long playing chess master of a nation when in reality this is likely a myth and they are just as reactive as Western powers but much more likely to choose wrong decisions as they suffer from information isolation. They shoot the messenger (literally) so no one brings those in power bad news.
Until Next Time
The Wealth Gap
无耻！无知！